{Current Mood: Hungry}
Listen,
The d00ds over at The Fake Football are putting on a writing contest. If I take first place, I'll be given a weekly platform on The Fake Football to talk about fantasy football on a website that's slightly more established than this one.
There are three rounds with a new topic for each round. The entries for topic #1, late round running backs to target in your 2013 fantasy football drafts, are due by tonight.
Fortunately my first article is already done and submitted, but I figured I would share it with my fellow Pond People to get some opinions, spark some debate, all that good stuff.
Without further ado, here it is in red text. Enjoy:
So I wouldn’t exactly call myself a “drunk drafter,” but I’m not above consuming a drink or few to help take the edge off while drafting my fake football teams.
But anyone I know that considers themselves a drinker knows that it can be very easy to lose track of how many you’ve thrown down if you’re not careful. And if this happens to you in a hectic live drafting environment, it can really rather easily derail your draft plans and you can wind up drafting Ryan Mathews in the first round.
Not that I know this from experience or anything, but that’s another story for another time.
If something like this happens to you this year, and even if it doesn’t, it would be a good idea to have some late round running back targets. At worst, you’re drafting them in the double digit rounds for depth anyway and can cut them if they don’t pan out. At best, if the stars align for one or all of them, they can win you your league.
Something that’s almost as important as picking the right players to target though is deciding how you choose to distinguish them from the pack on your cheat sheets. And if you consume enough alcohol by the time it gets to the double digit rounds, this can be the difference between taking one of these high-upside runners or Tim Tebow (YES! I snuck a Tebow reference in!).
Player ADP’s are from fantasyfootballcalculator.com and are from Thursday June 13, as of 8:00 PM. I’ve also included both sober analysis, for those who like to keep a clear mind during their drafts, as well as drunken analysis, which will help you out if you wind up throwing back enough drink to cloud your judgment, for all three players.
1) Danny Woodhead. ADP: 11.7. Draw lightning bolts next to his name and highlight it in yellow.
Sober Analysis: You’re saying I can wait until the double digit rounds to get 2012’s 24th ranked running back in both standard and PPR scoring? A guy who accomplished this feat despite only starting two games last year in New England? AND he’s behind Ryan Mathews on the depth chart? Sign me up.
You don’t want to fall into the trap of undervaluing runners that will catch a good amount of passes in standard leagues. Woodhead proved this last year. And even if Ryan Mathews winds up making us all despise him by breaking out a year after he was a trendy pick to do so and Woodhead doesn’t wind up starting any games as a result, he has the ability to be able to prove it again.
Drunken Analysis: There’s lightning bolts by his name. He plays for the Chargers now? Well that’s good because I drafted Ryan Mathews numerous times as my RB1 last year. Ryan Mathews better not troll me this season by being a beast. Anyway, Woodhead’s name is highlighted in yellow which reminds me of school. And Woodhead is a hard working player. I should take him here.
2) Pierre Thomas. ADP: 13.7. Draw a car next to his name, highlight it in green, and bookend it with dollar signs.
Sober Analysis: Matt Rittle, who I follow on the Twitter, recently tweeted out an interesting nugget about the one they call PT Cruiser. His career averages are 60 yards, 0.4 TDs, & 2.6 receptions per game. Extrapolated over a full fantasy season, that gives you 900 yards, 6 TDs, and 39 catches.
Sure you would have to avoid playing him on the weeks he’ll inevitably put up duds to take full advantage of this potential, and hope that he’s in your lineup when he has big games, but I have no problem drafting a guy in the 13th round who can possibly put up that kind of a seasonal stat line. Especially considering that Chris Ivory is out of the fold in New Orleans and Sean Payton is back in it.
Drunken Analysis: There’s a car next to his name. Probably because people call him PT Cruiser. That kind of car is pretty cheap, just like Pierre Thomas. His name is highlighted in green which is the color of money, which is represented by the dollar signs I drew by his name. Those are there because every season, it seems like PT Cruiser winds up being money. AMIRITE?
3) Knile Davis. ADP: Unlisted. Highlight his name in red and draw a picture of Sonic the Hedgehog next to it.
Sober Analysis: Once upon a time, I drafted a Kansas City backup running back in the 14th round of my big money fantasy league. The move paid off in spades as Jamaal Charles finished the 2009 season as a top ten fantasy runner.
I’m not saying that drafting Knile Davis in the 14th round of your draft will net you a top ten fantasy runner. But can we please give a shred of love to a guy who is getting absolutely none of it in the fantasy community and only fell to the third round of this past NFL Draft because of injuries and a final season at Arkansas that was doomed from the start thanks to Petrino-gate? There was a time in the not-so-distant past when Knile Davis was talked about as being a potential first round pick.
Not to mention, we all saw what Bryce Brown did on an Andy Reid coached team last year. We can’t really say yet what kind of offense Reid will be running in Kansas City but even if Knile Davis doesn’t see the field much this season, you’re looking for upside at this point in the draft. So why not take a chance on a guy who some over at Rotoviz were plugging as the #2 RB in the 2013 class?
And don’t worry about the fact that his final collegiate season wasn’t productive enough to keep him in first round consideration. One of the things that the fine folks at Rotoviz have taught me is that it doesn’t matter when an RB exhibited upside in college— only that he exhibited it and that it was sizable.
Drunken Analysis: There’s a picture of Sonic the Hedgehog next to his name. Sonic is really fast so that must mean Knile Davis must be really fast. Oh yeah, he ran a 4.37 40 at the Combine. Good times. His name is highlighted in red. Kool-aid is red. Speaking of Kool-aid and the Kool-aid man, doesn’t Andy Reid coach the Chiefs now? That can only mean good things for Knile Davis’ fantasy prospects if he gets a chance to play, which he should because he’s very talented. And fast. I should take a chance on this guy.
If your drafts are anything like mine, they may run late. And the later they run, the more alcohol you’re likely to consume. The more alcohol you consume, the dumber your decisions have the potential of being as you reach the final stages of the draft.
Regardless of whether or not you target these late round running backs, just remember that you don’t have to let the alcohol talk you into drafting players with no upside and that you can take steps towards making sure it doesn’t happen.
By distinguishing players you like from the pack on your cheat sheets in such a way that you can’t ignore them no matter how drunk you get, you can take steps in ensuring that you give yourself the best opportunity at a late round steal that could win you your league. Or these guys can be cut from your squad before Week 3. You should be taking them late enough in your drafts that it doesn’t really matter whether they pan out. But you have to do all you can to give yourself the chance at taking the difference maker that can lead you to a championship or several.
And if you take anything away from this article, make sure you remember that Sonic the Hedgehog is really fast.
Hopefully you all enjoyed what I had to say. And hopefully the judges of the contest, which include fantasy football aficionados such as C.D. Carter, David Gonos, Matt Waldman, John Sarmento, among others, will enjoy it just as much if not more.
I was hoping to go in a slightly different direction with this entry but, for the purposes of this piece, we were asked to assume 12-team, non-PPR standard leagues. This kind of derailed my initial plan for the entry so I adjusted on the fly and went in a direction that hopefully stands out as a memorable one.
Keep checking us out over here in PSS country for updates on how the contest is going as well as new and exciting content in the world of sport, fantasy and reality alike. I'm still looking to crank out one more RFW piece before Sunday's PPV. If I can accomplish the necessary research needed to write a piece like the one I have in mind, it will definitely be worth checking out in advance of Payback this Sunday night.
Now if you'll excuse me, you know what it's time for:
#KThanksBye
-Ray Ray Marz
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