The 2012 NFL Draft Class and the Henry Rowengartner Effect

{Current Mood: Like a Dirty Kabala… if you don’t get the reference, it’s because you’re not supposed to >:) }

So what is it with all these n00bs coming into the NFL and playing at a Pro Bowl level recently?

Does anyone else notice that it’s happening far more frequently these days?

Looking at the scores and recaps of yesterday’s NFL games got me to thinking not only about the impact that rookie players have had on their franchises this season, but how they’ve impacted their respective teams for the last few seasons.

The first thing that pops into mind is the miraculous Super Bowl run of the 2007 New York Football Giants.

As much as Ernie Accorsi saved the Giants franchise by trading Philip Rivers for Eli Manning in 2004, it was new GM Jerry Reese that really helped the G-men turn the corner with a brilliant first draft in 2007 that gave us a lot of players who were key in that year’s Super Bowl run.

Aaron Ross, Steve Smith, Jay Alford, Zak DeOssie, Kevin Boss, & Ahmad Bradshaw were all drafted by Reese in 2007 (Bradshaw, who ran for over 1,500 yards and 19 touchdowns the year before at Marshall, being drafted #250 overall). And even though DeOssie and Bradshaw are the only two players left from that year’s draft class, the fact remains that all of these guys were key contributors to the Giants’ run either during the season or during the Super Bowl (Jay Alford’s final drive sack of Tom Brady comes to mind).

Sure each draft class has its fair share of rookies come in and contribute right away in some capacity, and a lot of guys drafted from 2007 onwards have gone on to have great careers (JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, etc. just to name a few from 2007). But when you stop to think about it, how many guys drafted from 2007 onwards, especially in the early part of the first round, have really “Henry Rowengartnered” their teams and helped single-handedly turn them from a bottom feeder into a contender?

Just off the top of my head, the only names that really come to mind that you can make a legitimate argument for are Matt Ryan (2008), Von Miller (2011), & JJ Watt (2011). If the Bengals make it into the playoffs, you can possibly throw AJ Green’s name into the conversation as well.

And, as recently as 2011, we’re starting to see guys like Christian Ponder, Julio Jones, and Aldon Smith speak up and have more of a say in taking their teams to the playoffs (only potentially though in Ponder’s case).

Which brings me to the 2012 NFL Draft Class and just how instrumental the highest touted players have been in turning around the fortunes of their teams who a lot of people didn’t give a chance to do anything this season.

How can you not start this conversation with Andrew Luck bringing a rebuilding Colts team to the brink of a 10-win season and a playoff berth just one year after the team won two total games? 

Irony Alert: I found an old text message from one Dan Turner of Pond Scum Sports who literally quoted that once Andrew Luck saw a real NFL defense, he’d crack. Irony Alert: Dan drafted Andrew Luck in the Kirby’s All Stars fantasy football league. Just saying.

The fact that the Redskins have a chance to make their Week 17 game against Dallas potentially matter as long as RG5-2 isn’t too badly injured speaks volumes about what RG5-2 has done for the Redskins franchise.

The Browns are riding Trent Richardson to a season in which, at the very least, they have a real chance at not drafting in the top ten for the first time in what feels like forever.

Matt Kalil is highly exceeding expectations and is a big reason why Minnesota is still alive in the playoff hunt with Week 15 approaching.

Not that they’ve single-handedly turned their respective teams around, but Morris Claiborne and Mark Barron are bigger reasons than people think for the fact that Dallas and Tampa still have a shot at the playoffs. 

Russel Wilson has the Seahawks on the verge of making the playoffs in the role that was supposed to be occupied by Matt Flynn, Brandon Weeden hasn’t been terrible enough to sink the Browns too badly as of right now, & Doug Martin could easily be legitimately in the hunt for rookie of the year honors if Tampa had a winning record and more realistic shot at a playoff berth (And I'd be remiss not to mention that David Wilson is finally starting to show signs of life).

The only thing that I think will be more fun to watch than which of these rookies inspire their teams to playoff berths or maybe even a Cinderella-like playoff run is going to be watching which rookies, over the next few years, continue to put up numbers and help their teams win division titles, playoff berths, or maybe even Super Bowls.

If Luck wins rookie of the year, will RG5-2 channel his inner Tom Brady and make the rest of the NFL pay for it over the course of his career? Will Luck do the same thing when he inevitably gets snubbed for a Pro Bowl berth in favor of Brady, Peyton, and Schaub (although one of those three could conceivably make it to the Super Bowl which would potentially open the door for Luck)? Will guys like Doug Martin or Trent Richardson feel snubbed when they inevitably don’t win rookie of the year honors and run roughshod over the NFL for the next decade while putting up numbers comparable to the greatest runners of all time? Will someone as highly touted as Justin Blackmon take advantage of Jacksonville inevitably realizing Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne aren’t the answer, fixing the quarterback position, and giving Blackmon a chance to put up numbers like he put up at Oklahoma State?

That, for me, is where the real fun is going to lie over the next couple of years. This isn’t even considering guys like Ryan Tannehill and Nick Foles who may get better chances to bring their teams back to playoff contention as their teams try to improve in the offseason. It isn’t even counting guys like Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Jake Locker, & Christian Ponder who are looking to bring their teams back to playoff contention over the next few seasons. And it isn’t even considering the impact that guys like Matt Barkley, Geno Smith, and Jarvis Jones (just to name a few) will have on the respective franchises that draft them (looking long and hard at Kansas City, Oakland, and/or Jacksonville).

This is a scary thought.

This football season has shown that we live in a completely different era when it comes to how soon a player can impact a franchise or a university in their first season.

Proof Positive: a freshman quarterback just won the Heisman Trophy. That’s only supposed to happen in NCAA ’08 when I make myself the quarterback of Arkansas and carry myself, Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, and Peyton Hillis to a National Championship (DAYUM that team was stacked).

What does all this mean for the future of the game? On paper, the answer is “excitement.” But you also have to look at the fact that this year was supposed to be the continuation of the evolution of the tight end position in the NFL as well as the continuation of quarterbacking explosions.

Compared to last season, that hasn’t exactly gone according to plan. Just look at Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, and every highly touted fantasy football tight end except for Tony Gonzalez if you don’t believe me.

So you never really know what the future holds for the game, but if the success of this year’s draft class is any indication, we could be in for the next Golden Age of NFL football.

Let’s just hope Commissioner DoucheHat doesn’t do things to ruin the game like eliminate kickoffs and replace them with a fourth-and-fifteen situation… which, by the way, would be the worst thing to ever happen to the Madden video game franchise because serious online players would never lose possession of the ball.

Ever!!!

Deuces,

-Ray Ray Marz-