{Current Mood: a tad more vibrant than yesterday}
Well then,
I see we’ve all started our day with some internet-breaking news as it
relates to some guy who plays tight end for the New England Patriots (no, not
Tim Tebow).
But as a degenerate gambler and lover of all things fake sports-related,
the biggest question I have is what this morning’s arrest and subsequent
release of Aaron Hernandez means from a fake football perspective.
Per Fantasy Football Calculator, AHern’s ADP had already tumbled all
the way down to the second pick of Round 10 in standard 12-team leagues as the
ninth TE off the board at the time of this posting. In 12-team PPR leagues, he
had only dropped down to the third pick of Round 6 as the sixth TE drafted.
Still, you had to believe that if this whole thing had boiled over,
somebody was going to spend an absurdly early draft pick on him in your
league(s) because he plays for the Pats and has Tim Tebow Tom Brady
throwing the ball to him. Not to mention Roberto Gronkowski’s injury woes and the
fact that somebody besides Daniel Amendola had to help replace Wesleyan Welker’s
production.
First of all, by default, this news will push the tight ends being
drafted after AHern further up the board than they should go, meaning you have
the opportunity to snag someone at a potentially huge discount if you wait it out
until the later rounds to draft your guy.
So who steps up to fill the TE void for the Patriots left by AHern and
potentially Gronk if he opens the season on the PUP list? Do you roll the dice and
draft Daniel Fells, Michael Hoomanawanui, or Jake Ballard? Most likely, the
answer to that question is no. Unless, of course, you either love torturing
yourself or are a nonsensical mark for the Patriots.
If you were drafting today and decided to draft a backup TE somewhere
around the Round 14 to Round 16 region, or if you’re just looking for a guy
whose progress to monitor on the waiver wire once the season starts, it may
behoove you to at least take a look at Zach Sudfeld, an undrafted free agent
out of Nevada.
Between the departures of Welker, Brandon Lloyd, and Deion Branch, the
Patriots are losing close to 3,000 snaps from the WR position last year. This
doesn’t even factor in the number of snaps they're losing between Gronk and AHern,
which easily brings that number to 3,000-plus.
A lot of these snaps will go to guys like Amendola, Michael Jenkins,
and Aaron Dobson. And while no one knows yet who is going to take the majority
of the TE snaps in New England, you can’t be excited about the possibility of
Fells, Ballard, or Mikey H being that guy. Even if it winds up being one of
them, you know what you’re getting with all three. There’s no way of knowing
which of those guys, if any, will be the main beneficiary here and there’s no
reason to waste a roster spot on any of them.
Instead, why wouldn’t you take a flier on a guy who you will most
likely cut after Week 2 anyway if he doesn’t set the world on fire right away? If
you want more reasons to at least keep this guy’s name in the back of your mind:
he’s 6’7’’, 253 pounds, has a 37.5’’ vertical, and recorded a 40-yard dash of
4.79 seconds. This at least sounds more like a guy worth taking a flier on.
And now it's time for some fun with numbers, brought to you by the fine folks over at Rotoviz.
Before the news of AHern’s arrest broke, the Pats had only lost two of
their 182 total TE targets from a year ago, a whopping 1.1%, good for 25th in
the league. Take away the 83 targets AHern saw last year and that number
increases to 46.7%, good for eighth in the NFL. This is before you factor in
the possibility that Gronk won’t be available for the first few games of the
year. Somebody has to take those targets.
As an undrafted free agent, there’s no guarantee Sudfeld even makes the
final roster. But if I ran the Patriots, I would at least try to sign him to
the practice squad. There aren’t many human beings that have the athletic measurables
that this guy has and that’s something that I wouldn’t want to risk another
team taking advantage of.
Before I leave you with some highlights, there’s something I need to
get off my chest.
I know I’ve joked about this in the past as I’m sure we all have but,
realistically, Tim Tebow will not be playing tight end for the New England
Patriots this season or any other season. He’s 6’3’’, 236 pounds, and recorded
a 4.71 40 time at the Combine. He would be one of the slowest, smallest TE’s in
the league and would be charged with not only learning an entirely new position,
but learning how to block a lot of big, nasty, scary DE’s that would like
nothing more than to rip his head off of his body and kick a 90-yard field goal
with it.
Stop it.
And now for some quickie Zach Sudfeld highlights:
And finally, from @NOTSCNFL:
2013 Jail offense:
RB- Chris Rainey
WR- Titus Young/Chad Johnson
TE- Aaron Hernandez
No QB, iffy RB, decent receivers. Looks like the #Jets.
KThanksBye
-Ray Ray Marz-
PS: Title Credit: @FauxJohnMadden, Photo Credit: @_Happy_Gilmore
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